You bought a card for $200. It was a solid pickup at the time (well done homie), good fundamentals, trending upward, the kind of card you felt good about. Then the market shifted… oh no. A reprint was announced, the hype faded, or a newer chase card pulled all the attention away. Now it is sitting at $75, and every time you look at it, you think the same thing: “I’ll hold until it comes back.”
Here at The TCG Times, we have been there (more times than we would like to admit). Most investors have. And while sometimes holding is absolutely the right call, what we are describing above is often not a rational investment decision, it is a psychological trap. It has a name, it is well-documented in behavioural finance, and it costs TCG collectors/investors real money every single year. It is called the sunk cost fallacy, and understanding it might be the most valuable thing you do for your portfolio this year. No joke.
What the Sunk Cost Fallacy Actually Is
The sunk cost fallacy is the tendency to continue holding a position because of the resources already invested in it, such as time, money, and/or emotional energy, rather than because of its future prospects. In plain terms, you are holding the card because of what you paid for it, not because of what it is likely to do next.
This is irrational from a pure investment standpoint, it happens in all markets, not just the ol cardboard, and here is why. The money you spent on that card is gone, regardless of what you do next. Selling at $75 after buying at $200 is a $125 loss, whether you sell today or in six months. The question that actually matters is not “how do I get back to $200?” it is “is this card the best use of $75 of my portfolio right now?” Those are completely different questions, and most collectors/investors are only asking the first one.
The Anchoring Problem: Why $200 Is Stuck in Your Head
Closely linked to the sunk cost fallacy is anchoring bias (we are learning a lot today) the tendency to fixate on a reference point (usually your purchase price) when making decisions. Once $200 is in your head as the “real” value of a card, every price below it feels like a loss, and every decision to sell feels like admitting defeat.
The market does not care what you paid. The card is worth $75 because that is what buyers are willing to pay for it today, full stop. Your purchase price is a historical fact about your own transaction, not a signal about the card’s inherent value or future direction. The moment you separate those two things in your mind, your decision-making gets dramatically clearer. You’ve probably seen reels of people who won’t sell at comps. This is probably why they won’t.
The Difference Between Holding and Bagholding
We want to be clear here, holding is not always wrong, in a lot of cases it’s the right thing to do. Patient, long-term holding is actually one of the most reliable strategies in TCG investing, and we have written about the rewards of buying during periods of low sentiment and holding through the noise. The key distinction is why you are holding.
Holding with conviction means you have a genuine thesis (a plan). The card has strong fundamentals, limited print run, iconic character, established demand and the current dip is driven by short-term noise rather than a structural change in its value. You have thought it through and you are choosing to hold because the future case is sound.
Bagholding means you are holding because selling feels like losing (you’re sad the price dipped). There is no updated plan, no reassessment of the fundamentals, just the hope that the number goes back up so you feel better about the original decision. One of these is a strategy. The other is an emotion. And emotions are expensive in this market, as we covered in our piece on FOMO and market psychology.
Set Your Exit Rules Before You Buy
The most effective way to defeat the sunk cost trap is to build your exit strategy before you ever make the purchase. This sounds simple, and it is, but almost nobody does it. When you buy a card, ask yourself two questions upfront:
At what price would I sell for a profit? Set a realistic target based on market conditions, not wishful thinking. If the answer is “when it 10x’s,” that is not a target, that is a fantasy (keep dreaming homie).
At what price would I cut my losses? This is the uncomfortable one. Decide in advance the level at which the card has clearly not performed as expected, and you would be better served redeploying that capital elsewhere. Writing this down before you buy removes the emotional paralysis later.
Having these numbers set in advance turns a potentially gut wrenching emotional decision into a mechanical one. The card hit your stop. You sell. You move on.
The Portfolio Cleanse: Dead Weight Is a Hidden Cost
There is another angle to the sunk cost trap that rarely gets discussed: opportunity cost. Every dollar tied up in a card that is going nowhere is a dollar not working anywhere else in your portfolio. That underperforming $75 card is not just a paper loss, it is preventing you from deploying that capital into something with genuine momentum. (You could sell the card and make your loss back on something else, using the money)
Going through your collection once or twice a year with fresh eyes and honest assessments is one of the highest-return activities a TCG investor can do. Ask yourself, card by card: “If I didn’t own this, would I buy it today at this price?” If the honest answer is no, that card is probably not earning its place in your portfolio.
The TCG Times’ Verdict: Your Purchase Price Is Irrelevant to Future Value
The market does not know what you paid and it does not care. The only question worth asking about any card in your collection is whether it represents the best use of the capital it ties up, based on where things stand today. That requires honest, forward-looking thinking, research, and a willingness to occasionally take a loss and move on. No investor wins them all.
The collectors who build genuinely strong portfolios over time are not the ones who never make bad calls. They are the ones who recognise a bad call early and correct it, rather than letting sunk cost psychology turn a manageable loss into a much larger one.
Cut clean. Redeploy smart. Repeat.
Disclaimer: The TCG Times is a news and educational platform. All content provided is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as professional financial advice. Trading cards are high-risk, volatile assets. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always perform your own due diligence before making any financial decisions.
